Blog Archive

The Treasury Market’s Forced Seller Problem

Why yen intervention matters less as currency policy than as a way to stop Japan becoming a forced seller of benchmark US Treasuries.

The 40 Year Bet on 3 Year Machines

Alphabet’s AI debt binge hides a dangerous mismatch between long-lived bonds and rapidly aging computing hardware.

The Power Equipment Ceiling on AI Data Centers

AI construction spending looks like an exponential boom, but the real ceiling is power equipment and grid interconnection. Cash is no substitute for lead time.

The Steepening Nobody Should Trust

The yield curve is positive but thin. That is not health. Long-duration risk is still underpriced after six years of bond bear market.

The Bond Market Still Believes in a Dead Fed Put

Warsh killed forward guidance, but the narrow 2s10s spread says the market still prices a Fed put. Long duration remains dangerously underpriced.

The Leverage That Broke Seoul

SK Hynix and Samsung’s operational leverage turned a market correction into a 34% crash. The hidden cost structure behind the KOSPI bloodbath.

The Index Concentration Trap

SK Hynix and Samsung dominate the KOSPI, turning a chip sell-off into a systemic crash. This structural flaw amplifies losses.

The Real Inflation Engine of AI Data Centers

The surge in electrical equipment orders reveals a dangerous inflation spiral that most analysts overlook in the AI data center boom.

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