Blog Archive
The 30-Year Bond’s Hidden Supply Trap
Monthly 30-year Treasury auctions eliminated rollover demand, creating a structural yield premium pushing rates to 5%+ regardless of Fed policy or inflation
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The Grid Is the New Bottleneck
AI data centers are driving electricity demand so hard that utilities gain pricing power, creating inflation the Fed can’t fix with rate hikes alone.
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The 4% T-Bill Signal That Changed Everything
The six-month Treasury yield crossing 4% above the Fed’s rate is not just a data point; it’s a profit signal that rewrites the Fed’s next move.
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The Hidden Cost of Rising Short-Term Yields
Rising 6-month Treasury yields to 4% directly increase the government’s cost of funding short-term debt, compounding fiscal drag.
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The NTT Lesson for AI Stocks
Why today’s ‘safe’ tech infrastructure giants might be the next NTT—a capital-intensive monopoly that destroyed value after its 1987 IPO.
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The Cybertruck Tax on Tesla’s Core Business
Tesla’s 25% delivery spike masks a hidden cost: Cybertruck drains capital from the only profitable segment (Model 3/Y). This analysis unpacks the economics.
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The Policy Gap That Undermines AI Safety
Export controls on AI models create a dangerous gap: foreign competitors face constraints while domestic use remains unregulated. Here’s why this matters.
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The Hidden Rollover That Saves the US Treasury
Slow debt rollover masks US fiscal mess. Only 17% of $39T debt reprices quickly, keeping interest rates low and enabling the ‘run hot’ strategy.
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