Blog Archive
When AI Reverses 20 Years of Tech Deflation
AI investment boom turns imported electronics into persistent inflation, ending two decades of tech deflation.
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Why Autocrats Pay Less for Capital
SpaceX’s IPO structure reveals how founder-controlled firms lower their cost of capital by avoiding shareholder oversight—a hidden economic advantage.
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The Services Inflation Trap
Services PPI accelerated to 4.6% while energy fell. Most analysts miss why this is worse for corporate margins than headline inflation.
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The Spread That Speaks Louder Than Waller
While markets watch Fed speeches, the 1-year Treasury yield spread over EFFR quietly signals rate hike odds. This overlooked mechanism is key.
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The 30-Year Bond’s Hidden Supply Trap
Monthly 30-year Treasury auctions eliminated rollover demand, creating a structural yield premium pushing rates to 5%+ regardless of Fed policy or inflation
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The Grid Is the New Bottleneck
AI data centers are driving electricity demand so hard that utilities gain pricing power, creating inflation the Fed can’t fix with rate hikes alone.
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The 4% T-Bill Signal That Changed Everything
The six-month Treasury yield crossing 4% above the Fed’s rate is not just a data point; it’s a profit signal that rewrites the Fed’s next move.
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The Hidden Cost of Rising Short-Term Yields
Rising 6-month Treasury yields to 4% directly increase the government’s cost of funding short-term debt, compounding fiscal drag.
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